THE BITCOIN COUNCIL

Dominant bid-side imbalance detected with a strong support floor at $66,500 and sparse resistance until $71,800.

BTC maintains a bullish posture above key EMAs with a confirmed Higher Low structure, targeting the previous All-Time High resistance zone.

Indicators show extreme overbought levels with bearish divergence. Momentum is exhausted, signaling a high probability of a downward mean reversion.

On-chain data indicates that 'Smart Money' whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin by moving significant volumes off exchanges into cold storage, supported by overall decreasing exchange reserves and strong long-term holder conviction.

Significant Kimchi (+1.5%) and Coinbase (+0.8%) premiums indicate strong regional buying pressure, driving fragmented price discovery. These demand imbalances present clear arbitrage opportunities and signal a bullish market leaning.

The network is in a robust expansion phase with hashrate near all-time highs, driven by efficient hardware deployments and strong infrastructure investment.

The market is in a state of cautious consolidation with low retail participation, indicating a mid-cycle lull rather than a blow-off top or a final bottom.

The market is poised for significant regulatory clarity, driven by impending US Ethereum Spot ETF decisions, EU MiCA implementation, and critical US litigation outcomes that will define the SEC's reach. While global tax and CBDC developments reshape the landscape, these milestones collectively pave the way for increased institutional access and market liquidity, despite ongoing US legal uncertainties.

Upcoming hard events like Mt. Gox payouts and potential options on BTC ETFs are volatility catalysts. Soft events such as Bitcoin 2024 and MicroStrategy earnings are likely non-events for direct price discovery.

Bitcoin is firmly in the 'Accumulation' phase of its new 4-year Halving Cycle, approximately two months post-halving, driven by reinforced scarcity and laying the groundwork for significant long-term appreciation as per S2F dynamics and aging HODL Waves.

Despite strong long-term fundamentals and accumulation, significant short-term risks from technical overextension, market euphoria, and tightening global liquidity suggest a high probability of an immediate price correction.